Stock market live updates: Dow up 1,500, hope for a stimulus deal, gold surging

All eyes are on Congress to pass a much-needed stimulus bill to rescue the economy from the coronavirus damage. The stock market is staging a turnaround with the Dow rebounding from its 2016 low. Here’s what’s happening:

CNBC’s Jim Cramer said after his interview with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on “Squawk on the Street” that it was urgent that the Democrats and Republicans reach a deal on economic relief on Tuesday. “Obviously, if they don’t come together in the next 24 hours it’s a different world for all of us,” Cramer said. Cramer took issue with some of the items Pelosi says she wants included in the bill but said he expected an agreement to be reached. “Anything that advances the ball is something with neutral language. That said, the Speaker is a complete pro at getting things done and knows that the country will feel very let down, and obviously the markets will be crushed. If I were a betting person, and felt like it was okay to go in when the S&P was up 5.85%, you better believe there’s going to be a deal today.” — Pound

The market comeback gained steam in morning trading with the Dow jumping more than 1,400 points. The S&P 500 popped 6.6% and the Nasdaq rose 6.2%. Optimism is rising that Congress can reach an agreement on a coronavirus stimulus plan in the next few hours. — Li

Shares of United, Delta, American and Southwest each rose at least 10% in early trading as investors heard optimism from Congress on a coronavirus stimulus deal being reached on Tuesday. The stocks of the four big U.S. airlines have been decimated in recent weeks by the slowdown in travel. — Sheetz

While the stock market feels “broken” in recent weeks amid the coronavirus sell-off, equity strategist Tom Lee of Fundstrat sees a V-shape recovery ahead, with the S&P 500 recovering half of its losses as soon as next month and potentially all of its losses later this year. If a market bottom occurs this week, the S&P 500 could trek back to the 2,800 level as soon as April, said Lee. This would mean the index rallies about 25% in the next few weeks. This is still well off the S&P 500′s all time high of 3,393.52 on Feb. 19.

Fundstrat looked at 10 stock market drawdowns of about 30% since 1920 and found that the time needed to recover half of the losses during those pullbacks, was half the duration of the decline, the firm said. The median ratio for recovery is 0.5x, the most recent example being in 2002 and during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. “In 2020, this means, a six week decline would require 3 weeks to recover 50% back,” said Lee, landing the S&P 500 at 2,800 as soon as April. A 100% recovery take on average three to four months, meaning a 3,400 around summertime. – Fitzgerald


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